The 2010 Device
The big buzzword at GDC was "democratization." Or "democratisation" if you speak the Queen's English. Although a buzzword, this is a fairly big idea, and it seemed to me that everybody who was talking about it (even if they didn't realize they were talking about it) had a different idea about how to approach it. Microsoft, with XNA, approached it from the distribution angle: making it easier for game makers to publish. Raph Koster and Rod Humble, among others whom I regrettably was unable to see, had not merely ideas about bringing development to people like your grandma, but technology for making it happen. And it seemed like everybody had a success story about how customization abilities and social network integration boosted their games' critical and commercial reception.
The lesson to learn from this is simple: people have a voracious appetite for games. They can no longer be satisfied merely with what professionals and auteurs provide, if they could ever be satisfied in this way in the first place. In order for games to survive in the era of YouTube they need to have the variety and accessibility of YouTube; in order for games to survive in the era of Facebook they need to have the connectivity and extensibility of Facebook. And we'll need the organizational power of a Google or Amazon to sort through it all.
All right, so anybody who was at the Conference last week knows it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out, nor to perceive the gears that are already in motion to realize that scenario. By the time the next GDC rolls around we can see how it worked out. I'm looking further into the future, to the GDC after that. The year 2010.
Incidentally, Ray Kurzweil, in his keynote address, had an interesting thing to say about the technology that we'd have to work with in 2010.
The innate advantages that we game developers (I hesitate to use the term "professional," but the ones with more claim to the title than Joe User will after he's learned the tools from The Sims Carnival) possess are these:
- A more thorough understanding of the artistic nature of games
- The knowledge to games for people with widely different tastes than ourselves
- The ability to create and deploy larger-scale technologies which more fully make use of our target platforms and the Internet
- The resources to fill our game with huge amounts of deliberately constructed content, customized for our purpose
- A stronger position from which to negotiate the distribution and monetization of our handiwork
Once grandma can do it, we will find it impossible to make money by repackaging Space Invaders. Somehow I can't make myself believe that this is a bad thing.
Now let's consider the new opportunities that 2010 will bring us. Extrapolating from current trends, we can conclude that all games will include robust integration with social networking, and that virtually all communication will include the ability to make a game out of it (even if only to the extent that, as Elonka Dunin claimed in her 20-minute panel, Wikipedia editorship is a game). Everybody will be connected to the Internet by default and they will be able to find their location using GPS. Wherever a person goes they will have a Web browser or an equivalent thereto. Techniques for finding new material will use a variety of metrics based on our history, our friends, our friends' histories, popularity, tagging, reputation systems, and who-knows-what-else. Snobs like me will still be having a hard time, but this is normal.
Let's take this a little bit further. Ray Kurzweil maintains that 2010 will see the marketability of a single kind of handheld device which combines all of those features with an augmented reality display and hopefully a better input scheme than a cell phone. Maybe it will be gestural, maybe it will read brainwaves, maybe it'll be based on voice or eye movements. Such a machine, which I will call the 2010 Device because I'm terrible at naming things, raises many questions.
Many people will start off with the question, Will the 2010 Device be open to development? If cell phones are any indication - and I certainly hope that cell phones are never used as a model for anything ever again - then the answer will be No. But the Web will always be open to development, so we see that this device must have totally unfettered access to the Web.
If you're a developer - not even a game developer - then before 2010 rolls around you will probably need to ask yourself, What kind of product could I make for the 2010 Device? What cool new things can exist on a machine that makes "online" the default state of a human being?
Well, don't look at me. I'm still a student. My ideas aren't even half-baked yet. However, it's clear that this is a question which needs to be answered with great force. I think that the future of games may depend on what we do with the 2010 Device.
Let's look at the mistakes surrounding cellular phones. When these little nuisances started to gain the ability to do things more interesting than tell time and make phone calls, what did the game developers do with them? We populated them with the most strenuous things that their tiny CPUs could handle, which started off meaning Arkanoid and Tetris. And we stopped there. And people got it into their heads that cell phone owners didn't really want anything that couldn't be found in a superior form ten or twenty years ago in an arcade.
There's a number of reasons why development halted there and let that stagnant mindset take over. Perhaps the notoriously short-sighted service providers decided that once they had the same games that everybody else did, no further developments were required. Perhaps we game developers were just distracted by our beloved magnum opuses on PCs and consoles. Perhaps we simply gave the people what they wanted, and most people couldn't really imagine the possibilities.
Whatever the reason, duplicating the arcade on a cell phone did the cell phone an injustice. Here we have a handheld, ubiquitous device with a long battery life and which is optimized for satellite connectivity. The game development community, by and large, failed to make games that could take advantage of the fact that the cell phone was a communication device - in short, they failed to make games that could communicate.
People now are realizing that this is a mistake, but it's hard to overcome people's expectations of the device. People expect cell phones to give them isolated arcade games, so there's no demand for anything more, and so it's hard, from a business standpoint, to get them made. Cell phones are locked down tighter than any other consumer technology on earth, so it's impossible for independent developers to buck this trend. If these two factors also apply to the 2010 Device, we may not have another chance to make beautiful games for everybody.
Let's not sit around and wait for the decision to be made for us.
If we have completed designs, completed programs, completed servers, ready to be deployed when the first 2010 Devices start being available, then right from the very beginning we will be able to say "This is what it means to play a game now." The examples that we set will determine the boundaries which the platform's controllers - if indeed there are any, which I hope is not the case - must allow games to explore.
This means that all of the new ideas that we establish for 2009 - taking full advantage of social connectivity and the natural creativity of players - need to be in a form that can be carried over to 2010. This means that we must make sure that no capability of the future technology is put to waste. This means that everything we make needs to be in a form that people will love. It is within our power to determine whether people's most-used technology, and the device with which they connect to the Internet, will be more like a PC or more like a cell phone.
It will be our turn again soon. Let's make sure we play well.
Labels: GDC 2008, the future, video games
